Terrorism Roundup
Egypt: According to Ynet, Egyptian security forces captured 100 anti-aircraft missiles and other weapons believed destined for Gaza on Wednesday according to the Egyptian newspaper al-Youm al-Sabe’. Egyptian forces also discovered three tunnels linking Rafah to the Gaza Strip, and confiscated dozens of vehicles used for smuggling.
Gaza: The Kuwait News Agency reports that Palestinians fired two more rockets into Israel on Wednesday. Local radio stations said the Ali Mustafa Brigade – the armed wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – claimed responsibility.
And just hours after Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov urged Hamas to stop militants from firing rockets into Israel, a Qassam rocket was fired into Ashkelon.
Israeli warplanes responded by launching at least five attacks on various targets.
Lebanon: Tribunal investigators have summoned 12 Hizballah members and close supporters for questioning for the 2005 assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.
Hizballah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah referred to the 12 as “witnesses and not as suspects,” and told al Manar – the jihadist group’s television station – that “We have nothing to fear and we will co-operate.”
Nasrallah stated that six additional members would appear for questioning.
Hizballah, Israel, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, Syrian intelligence, and even al Qaeda have been speculated to be involved in the Hariri killing. But in May of last year, Der Spiegel reported the tribunal had evidence showing that Hizballah was behind the massacre.
Russia: Chechen terrorist leader Doku Umarov has claimed responsibility for the “Black Widow” suicide attacks on the Moscow Metro, which killed 39 Russians on Monday. Another double attack in Dagestan killed 12, including nine policemen on Wednesday. A second Dagestan bombing killed two more on Thursday. President Dimitri Medvedev said in a Security Council meeting that the attacks are “links in the same chain,” and called for a “brutal” response.
Monday’s blasts were the first terrorist attacks against Russia in six years.
In: National Security · Tagged with: Egypt, Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Rafik Hariri tribunal, Russia
Moscow signs defense pact with breakaway republics
Using the Olympics as cover, Russia invades Georgia in August, 2008; their troops burn, rape, and pillage along the way to South Ossetia and Abkhazia; the two territories are carved out of Georgia and become “breakaway republics.”
Now, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have signed 49 year defense pacts with Russia, allowing them to base thousands of troops in territories only recognized by Russia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela Hamas also recognized their independence, but opinions of terrorists don’t count).
The U.S., Georgia, NATO, G7, and the EU along with other countries and organizations still consider the territories to be part of Georgia, and as such are occupied territories. Predictably, the UN is silent on the matter.
As a Swedish foreign minister said, Russia’s actions were “certainly just as unacceptable” as Nazi Germany “defending its rights” in Sudetenland in 1938.
From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:
Russia has already agreed to help defend both regions’ airspace and to train their militaries.
Russia has also agreed to defend what Abkhazia describes as its territorial waters, but which according to international law remains under Georgia’s jurisdiction.
It seems that the Soviet Union er, Russia is reclaiming it’s ‘near abroad.’ With the gutless wonder in the White House and the world’s lack of response to the Russian expansion into Georgia, Ukraine and other former Soviet states should prepare for the worst.
In: Geopolitics · Tagged with: Hamas, Republic of Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia, UN
Misreading the Iranian Situation
[From STRATFOR's Geopolitical Weekly]
The Iranians have now agreed to talks with the P-5+1, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China) plus Germany. These six countries decided in late April to enter into negotiations with Iran over the suspected Iranian nuclear weapons program by Sept. 24, the date of the next U.N. General Assembly meeting. If Iran refused to engage in negotiations by that date, the Western powers in the P-5+1 made clear that they would seriously consider imposing much tougher sanctions on Iran than those that were currently in place. The term “crippling” was mentioned several times.
Obviously, negotiations are not to begin prior to the U.N. General Assembly meeting as previously had been stipulated. The talks are now expected to begin Oct. 1, a week later. This gives the Iranians their first (symbolic) victory: They have defied the P-5+1 on the demand that talks be under way by the time the General Assembly meets. Inevitably, the Iranians would delay, and the P-5+1 would not make a big deal of it.
Talks About Talks and the Sanctions Challenge
Now, we get down to the heart of the matter: The Iranians have officially indicated that they are prepared to discuss a range of strategic and economic issues but are not prepared to discuss the nuclear program — which, of course, is the reason for the talks in the first place. On Sept. 14, they hinted that they might consider talking about the nuclear program if progress were made on other issues, but made no guarantees.
In: Geopolitics · Tagged with: Cuban Missile Crisis, Iran, Israel, nuclear weapons, Russia, sanctions, Stratfor, UN
Russia Keeping US Humvees as Plunder
A top Russian general says that Russia is keeping the four U.S. military Humvees captured in Russia’s invasion of the Republic of Georgia last year as “trophies.”
The Humvees were in the former Soviet nation last year as part of a joint training exercise.
European Union monitors are at the “boundaries” Georgia shares with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but they will surely prove to be as effective as the U.N.’s UNIFIL force has been at keeping Hezbollah at bay in Lebanon. Just as Hezbollah denies UNIFIL access to areas, Russia and Ossetian forces deny EU monitors access to South Ossetia in order to verify claims of Georgian attacks.
Over a year after the invasion, Russia still maintains a force of 1,000 troops in Abkhazia and 800 in South Ossetia. But as BBC reports, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said on Wednesday that the troop levels would increase by 1,500 in each territory. However, no one should worry as this is still less than half of the troops that Russia had deployed last year according to Karasin.
While Russia feels that their military occupation of Georgia is acceptable, they staunchly oppose any involvement by the U.S., such as humanitarian aid after the invasion and firefighting drills with the Navy and Coast Guard in July.
Obama’s diplomatic efforts in the Kremlin last month to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity appear to have failed.
To put the Russia’s Georgian invasion of a year ago into perspective, it would be like if Mexico sent their Army into the United States – raping and pillaging along the way as the Russians did – and drove the American military out of Southern California and Texas. Russia feels as though their former Soviet states – like Georgia – are still theirs, just as Mexico has their “reconquista.” There are ethnic Russians in Georgia, as there are ethnic Mexicans in the Southern U.S., but that in no way justifies a Mexican invasion.
In: Geopolitics · Tagged with: Barack Obama, Republic of Georgia, Russia, US Coast Guard, US Navy
Russia: No Gas for You
This is a transcript of the Unto the Breach program. Click here for the audio.
Ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia and the Ukraine have been fighting over the terms of natural gas deals. Ukraine is Russia’s gateway to Europe: a great deal of Russia’s pipelines, roads, power lines, and railways first transit through Ukraine. The two always end up coming together as Russia needs the money. But after Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004, President Viktor Yushchenko led a government that does not act on Russia’s wishes. You may remember Yushchenko as the guy with the disfigured face – thanks to dioxin poisoning during the election. The poisoning may have been perpetrated by the FSB, the Russian successor of the KGB.
Ukraine wants to join the European Union and NATO, which would not benefit Russia.
The private intelligence company Stratfor provides excellent analysis on the subject:
Simply put, a Ukraine outside the Russian sphere of influence transforms Russia into a purely defensive power, one with little hope of resisting pressure from anywhere. But a Russified Ukraine makes it possible for Russia to project power outward, and to become a major regional—and potentially global—player.
In: Geopolitics · Tagged with: Russia, Ukraine
Holy Missile Shields, Batman!
The United States and Poland have agreed to terms on a missile defense shield. Under the agreement, the US will upgrade the Polish air defenses and increased military cooperation in return for rights to base the missiles in their country.
The agreement still needs to be finalized as Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski will meet with US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice next week. Then, the Polish Parliament and the US government must also approve of the deal. Democrats in Congress and the possible election of Barack Obama could prove to be a significant obstacle. If things proceed according to schedule, the shield will be online in 2012.
The Polish foreign minister said in a press conference, “only people of ill intent should fear this agreement.” The Russians consider the missile shield to be a threat. (more…)
In: National Security · Tagged with: missile defense, Russia
Operation Sarindar
The Soviet Plan to Hide Iraq’s WMD
The world was well aware of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) stockpiles. Politicians from both parties admitted that Saddam would not disarm voluntarily, and that military force was the only solution. Intelligence sources estimate that Iraq had 100 million tons of munitions, which is an astonishing 60 percent of our own arsenal. According to the House Armed Service Committee, Saddam himself admitted to possessing thousands of tons of WMD. Since we have not found the “smoking gun” proof of a WMD arsenal, they must have gone somewhere else.
Prior to our liberation of Iraq, it was clear we would not receive any support from Russia. In February of 2003, Russian President Vladmir Putin traveled to Germany and France to align the nations against U.S. military aggression, calling instead for further inspections – the same inspections process that yielded nothing in twelve years. WMD was in the hands of a regime that has already used them in war and even against their own country. What would keep Saddam from selling these weapons to terrorist organizations, putting millions of people worldwide at risk? That should have been enough to put Russia, Germany, and France on our side, but something was apparently going on under the radar. Putin called the attack “unwarranted” and “unjustifiable.” Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov proclaimed that the United States would fabricate findings of WMD stockpiles.
The truth is the Soviet Union supplied Iraq with WMD, in addition to many other countries that were not quite on friendly terms with the West. Since the Soviets supplied these countries with their WMD, they had plans to cover up their tracks if something went wrong. It would not bode well for the USSR if the world knew what it was doing behind the scenes. To combat this, the Soviets would orchestrate an effective Information Operations (IO) campaign. They would deny the West the propaganda victory of finding any weapons stockpiles. Chemical weapons production facilities are disguised as civilian manufacturing plants, making detection difficult. The Soviets even use Western left-wing organizations, such as the World Peace Council, to spread their anti-Western propaganda. The distraction these groups create during an anti-Western protest would draw the world’s attention away from Soviet-sponsored foul play.
Ion Mihai Pacepa is the highest-ranking Soviet bloc intelligence officer to defect to the West. He served as chief of the Romanian foreign intelligence agency. He says Romania had a plan to sanitize its Soviet WMD called Operation Sarindar, or Emergency Exit. Pacepa actually carried out this plan for Muammar Qaddhafi in Libya. The only evidence left behind of the Soviet involvement was technical documents stored on microfiche and buried. Once recovered, these documents would show how to quickly rebuild the weapons arsenal.
Pacepa states that Iraq had its own version of Sarindar. In the late 1970′s, General Yevgeny Primakov ran Saddam’s weapons programs. Primakov was friends with Saddam, and made frequent trips to Iraq following 1991. According to Pacepa, Primakov hates Israel and has always championed Arab radicalism. In fact, Primakov (promoted to Prime Minister in 1998) was in Baghdad in December of 2002 until a couple of days before the invasion. Accompanying him were two retired Russian generals: Vladislav Achalov, a former deputy defense minister, and Igor Maltsev, a former air defense chief of staff. Iraq’s remaining military arsenal was no match for the American firepower. Therefore, they would not have been in Iraq as military advisors. Instead, they were implementing Iraq’s version of “Sarindar.”
Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense John Shaw was responsible for tracking Saddam’s stockpiles both before and after the liberation of Iraq. Shaw received intelligence from British sources on the Iraqi/Syrian border of truck convoys driving into Syria and returning empty in February and March of 2003. American Shaw also learned that steel drums with painted warnings were being transferred to a basement of a Beirut hospital. Shaw believes that WMD that had been stored in flooded bunkers was put on ships at the port of Umm Qasr set sail where the cargo was sunk in the Indian Ocean.
Russian GRU, military, and civilian personnel carried out the mission under the command of the two retired generals Achalov and Maltsev. Over the past five or six years, the generals visited Baghdad no fewer than 20 times. The generals were even photographed in Baghdad receiving medals from Iraqi Defense Minister Sultan Hashim Ahmed. Shaw revealed that U.S. intelligence sources knew “the identity and strength of the various Spetsnaz units, their dates of entry and exit in Iraq, and the fact that the effort (to clean up Iraq’s WMD stockpiles) with a planning conference in Baku from which they flew to Baghdad.” The Russian Minister of Emergency Situations Sergei Shoigu held a conference in Baku where he detailed the plans for the operation. After his speech, Shoigu headed for Baghdad to help lead the clean up.
Demetrius Perricos is the acting chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC). He announced that his team has tracked shipments of WMD materials worldwide. UNMOVIC estimated in 2004 that Iraqis were exporting 1,000 tons of scrap metal daily. Inspectors have found dozens of the banned al-Samoud (SA-2) missile engines in Jordan, Turkey, and the Netherlands, all shipped out as scrap metal.
Inspectors have also located “dual use” technology such as fermenters, freeze-driers, missile parts, distillation columns, and a reactor vessel. For example, a fermenter can be used to manufacture many kinds of medicine, but it can also breed anthrax. There are innocent uses to dual use technology, but inspectors noted that many of the dual use sites they visited previously have been taken apart. If Saddam’s claims of the technology being used for innocent purposes were true, the equipment would most likely still be in operation.
In Rotterdam, a Dutch scrap company discovered five pounds of yellowcake uranium ore from Jordan. Jordanian officials stated the substance originated in Iraq. I wonder what Ambassador Joe Wilson thinks about that!
Jordan, a U.S. ally, seized 20 tons of chemical weapons in a foiled al-Qaeda attack meant to kill 80,000 Jordanians. Seventy different chemicals, including Sarin and VX gas, were confiscated. Jordan claims these weapons came from Syria, who only has a limited capability to manufacture WMD on their own, certainly not the 20 tons that al-Qaeda possessed. Since they couldn’t make it themselves, it had to come from somewhere else. In 2004, American troops were actually attacked by insurgents using Sarin and mustard gas chemical weapons.
A Syrian journalist defected to Paris in January of 2004. He said a friend of his in intelligence informed him that the son of a Syrian defense minister was paid 50 million dollars to bring WMD across the border into Syria and bury them. The defector named three burial sites in Syria, and Israeli intelligence confirmed the information. John Shaw also names the three sites in Syria, in addition to one in the Beqaa Valley in Lebanon.
Former Iraqi General Georges Sada confirms that trucks moved WMD into Syria prior to the invasion. Sada says that Iraq had a specific committee for hiding WMD. The committee met until a dam collapsed in northwestern Syria. Saddam used the disaster as a chance to move WMD to Syria by plane, disguising the cargo as humanitarian aid. Sada was shocked out of silence by the foiled Jordanian terror plot. He saw that the weapons were in the hands of the terrorists.
The Soviet strategy carries on, even after the fall of the Soviet Union. Now Iraq’s WMD are in the hands of Syria and Lebanon. The U.S. military conducted a campaign that was nothing short of brilliant. We brought Saddam to justice, and we are helping rebuild a peaceful and democratic Iraq. America has been denied the trivial propaganda victory of finding the “smoking gun.” But at what cost?
Chris Carter is the host of “Unto the Breach with Crushing Chris Carter.”
http://www.crushingchris.com
COPYRIGHT 2007 CHRIS CARTER
In: National Security · Tagged with: Ion Mihai Pacepa, Iraq, Russia, Saddam Hussein, Soviet Union, USSR, WMD
